The unit
One number, one meaning
Take any trait an account has, say the Mojang cape. Count the tracked accounts that have it, divide by all tracked accounts, and you have its share. Flip the share and you have the odds: 198 owners out of about 78 million is 1 in 390,000. That is the whole idea. An account's odds are the odds of its rarest trait, nudged by its second rarest.
| Example | Measured | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| An account with the Mojang cape | 198 of ~78M tracked accounts own it | 1 in 390,000 |
| A five-letter English word name | 8 of 119,000 sampled names | 1 in 15,000 |
| First seen in a skin now on 100+ accounts | 16 of 15,500 sampled accounts | 1 in 970 |
| Name history dated 2013 or earlier | 109 of 15,500 sampled accounts | 1 in 140 |
| Migrator cape, nothing else | 6.1M of ~78M accounts own it | 1 in 13 |
Figures from the 28 Oct 2026 census; the nightly one moves them a little.
Tiers
A decade of odds each
- Charged Creeper Rarer than 1 in 10,000 Needs a lightning strike
- Blue Axolotl 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 1 in 1,200 axolotls
- Pink Sheep 1 in 100 to 1 in 1,000 1 in 610 sheep
- Spider Jockey 1 in 10 to 1 in 100 About 1 in 100 spiders
- Sheep Up to 1 in 10 Every field has some
The names borrow in-game odds: about 1 in 100 spiders spawn with a rider, 1 in 610 sheep are pink, 1 in 1,200 axolotls are blue, and a charged creeper takes a lightning strike. The tier edges are powers of ten; the mob odds are Mojang's.
The four facets
What is measured and where it comes from
- 1
Capes
The share of accounts that own your rarest Mojang cape, and the share that have as many capes as you do. The smaller of the two speaks for the facet.
Owner counts are the accounts crafty has looked up. Giveaway capes (50,000 known owners or more) are floored at 1 in 100 because most of their holders were never looked up.
- 2
Name
The share of accounts whose name is in the same class as yours (English word, letters only, digits only, or mixed) and no longer. Counting shorter names too means a long name never reads as rare.
Measured on a nightly sample of names. English words come from the SCOWL word lists. The name is judged by shape, not by who holds it.
- 3
Firsts
The share of accounts that were the first crafty saw wearing a skin now worn by at least 10, 100 or 1,000 accounts.
First means first seen by crafty, which follows the order accounts were looked up. It is a strong hint, not proof.
- 4
Record
The share of accounts whose dated name history reaches at least as far back as yours. Only dates before 2021, when crafty started tracking, count.
Dates come from Mojang's old name history API and from what crafty saw itself. Accounts that never changed their name have no dated history, so this facet says nothing about them.
Names fall in one of four classes. The share counts names in the same class that are as short or shorter, so Notch is measured against every English-word name of five letters or fewer.
English word
The whole name is one word from the dictionary. Fewer than 1 in 1,000 accounts have one.
Letters only
Letters from start to end, but not a dictionary word. About half of all accounts.
Digits only
Nothing but numbers. About 1 in 700 accounts.
Mixed
Letters with digits or underscores in it. The other half of all accounts.
Putting facets together
The one formula
Each facet gives one share. Sort them, call the smallest s₁ and the next s₂. If s₂ is not notable (1 in 4 or more common) it is 1. The account's share is
share = s₁ × √s₂ odds = 1 / share
Why the square root: two rare traits are rarer than one, but rare traits travel together (an old account with a Mojang cape probably also has a short name), so multiplying shares as if they were independent would overstate. Counting the second at half strength is the conservative middle. The third and later facets are listed on the profile but do not move the odds. Odds are capped at the population: nothing is rarer than 1 in everyone.
The traits that set the odds are highlighted on the profile. Any trait fewer than 1 in 4 accounts have is listed too.
What the data can't tell you
Read before quoting a number
- "Accounts crafty has seen" is the whole universe. That is about 78 million Java accounts, skewed towards the ones someone looked up. Mojang's real total is larger.
- Giveaway cape owner counts are lower bounds. A cape handed to anyone who logged in during an event has far more holders than the accounts crafty has indexed, so capes with 50,000 known owners or more are floored at 1 in 100.
- "First seen" means first seen by crafty. The order accounts were indexed decides who gets the credit, so treat it as a strong hint.
- Only name history dated before 2021 counts as a record. Accounts that never changed their name have no dated history, so a 2010 account that kept its name gets nothing here, and only its name and capes can speak for it.
- Shares come from a nightly sample, so odds move a little each night. Stored odds refresh when a profile is refreshed, which is why two accounts with the same traits can briefly show slightly different numbers.
- OptiFine capes, views, upvotes, claimed profiles and name-change counts are shown as facts and never scored. Anyone can buy, click or rename.
Questions
The ones that come up
What does "1 in 2,400" mean on my profile?
Of the accounts crafty has seen, about one in 2,400 has traits as rare as yours. It is a measured share, not a score: you can check it against the owner count on any cape page.
Why did my odds change when I did nothing?
Shares are remeasured every night from a sample of all tracked accounts, and cape owner counts grow as more accounts are looked up. Both move the odds a little. A new cape, a name change or hiding a cape moves them a lot.
Why is a popular account not at the top?
Popularity is not rarity. Views and upvotes say how many people looked, not how unusual the account is, so they are never counted. A famous account with a common name and a giveaway cape sits where its traits put it.
Do OptiFine capes count?
No. Anyone can buy one on any day, so owning one says nothing about the account. They have their own pages.
Why these tier names?
Each tier is a decade of odds, and each name is a Minecraft encounter with roughly those odds: about 1 in 100 spiders carry a skeleton, 1 in 610 sheep are pink, 1 in 1,200 axolotls are blue, and a charged creeper takes a lightning strike. The tier edges are ours; the mob odds are Mojang's.
Versions
Every stored figure carries the version it was measured with
v2 28 Oct 2026
Replaced the 0 to 100 score with measured shares. Four facets, odds as 1 in N, tiers by decade, a nightly census and the firsts and record facets.
v1 28 Oct 2026
First draft, withdrawn the same day.
When the method changes, the version goes up and every account is remeasured. Capes by rarity